SamSaid!

GAMBLE

     From the very outset it has been a big gamble to install a democratic form of governemnt in Iraq. The country has absolutely no history of democracy or political freedom as we know it in the USA. To the contrary, the governemental authority for centuries has been very autocratic and cruel. There are three batches of people in Iraq  — the Kurds, Sunni Muslims and Shiite Muslims. They have one thing in common. They do not like each other. Their history is one of whose ancestors were killing the ancestors of others. The Sunnis and Shiites are at odds with each other and neither group likes the Kurds. Those long standing fueds do  not enhance the chances of a stable democratic government. On top of all of that, under Saddam Hussein, the Sunnis  — a minority group  –    raped, killed, imprisoned, gassed and other wise came down very hard on the Shiites and Kurds. The Shiites constitute  60  % of the population and may very well be looking forward to “payback” time. That is why the Saddam Sunnis are doing everything they can to disrupt or block the scheduled elections in January 2005. In US terms, the Sunni insurgents may be staging Custer's Last Stand. They will go down fighting.

     A great fear has been that these long standing fuedal differences could result in an Iraqi Civil War. That would be the worst of all worlds for the US since we are desperately trying not to take sides in an overt way. We might hope that the Afghan example will show itself and that Iraqi people will strongly support free elctions and a democratic form of government. It will be a big step  — and that is why the January elections in Iraq are of critical importance. The insurgents no doubt will try to force a postponement of the elections. If the Iraqis really want to achieve freedom and govern themselves, they will have to muscle up against the Sunni insurgents. It may be a case of now or never.