SamSaid!

A MESS

     Iraq is surely a mess. Maybe a colossal mess spiralling out of control or maybe a manageable mess in which a few rays of sunshine penetrate the gloomy overcast. In a country as polarized as ours, it is difficult to get a reliable “read” from the mass media. We get our daily dose of news about US casualties, suicide bombers, rocket grenades, insurgents, Al-Quada, et al, but it almost seems as though there is a concerted effort to suppress news about schools back in operation, women involved in goverment, the resumption of oil production, potable water, electric power, transportation, hospitals, food supplies etc etc. There is little doubt that the vast majority of Iraqis are better off now than at any time in their lives. For sure we have our peaceniks who wouldn't lift a finger if Saddam and his henchmen marched down 5th Avenue randomly shooting pedestrians while his Al-Queda terrorists were bombing bridges. They are the ones who would rally behind the likes of Ted Koppel using his ABC access to champion his anti-war agenda.

     It is now May 1st and in 60 days we will turn over the Government to a tribunal of Iraqis  — backed by US muscle. This is a good way to evolve into true democracy because it will require a diverse group of Iraqis to deal with a lot of common problems in running a government. It makes sense to have a mix of women, men, Shias, Sunnis and Kurds making decisions thru collective effort. They have got to learn how to think “big”. It won't be easy, but it is a sound prerequisite step before national elections in December of 2005. Their task will not be easy since a ragtag group of terrorists will try in every way to defeat their aims and goals. Just is it is critical to us for the interim government to succeed, it is equally critical for the terrorists to have it fail. For all of our power, we cannot guarantee success. The only people who can do that are the Mullah, Ayatollah, and Cleric leaders of the different religious sects. If they continue to advance their exhortation to kill and attack, the fragile effort at demcracy will fail. Al Sistani (the Shia chiftain)  is the key guy. He has to step forward and lead. If he fails, chaos is almost guaranteed.

     I think the USA made the right decision to change the Iraqi regime. But in the last analysis, it will happen only if the Iraqis want it to happen. There is a lot riding on the next 60 days, and the next 6 months. And the role of the US is critical. It is scary to think of a USA election result that amounts to “cut and run”. For most Americans, it may come down to a simple choice  — “in a wartime setting, are you more comfortable with George Bush or John Kerry”?  Maybe just that simple.