Numbers
posted in General |NUMBERS
Woe be unto the poor souls who do not like numbers, relate to numbers or understand numbers because we are increasingly bombarded by numbers coming from all angles. It's not much wonder that people are indifferent to statistics and numbers. When I see a very large number nowadays I wonder if it is one of those with “000 omitted”. Trillion dollar budgets do that to the casual observer. Just think about it – interest rates, income tax rates, gross national product, earned run averages, batting averages, free throw averages, divorce rates, Dow Jones averages, Nasdaq averages — etc., etc., etc. Numbing numbers.
The ability to skim past the numbers has become a new reading skill. But a few days ago, I spotted a few numbers that really caught my attention. Time Magazine carried an article about oil in Iraq. Of course, many war protestors claimed that the war was all about oil. There is little doubt that in most of the last century, US foreign policy was heavily influenced by oil — middle east oil. At a minimum it goes back to the days of President Roosevelt before and during WW II. The numbers which I noticed in Time make it clear that oil is a really big deal in the Middle East and Iraq. A big deal for lots of countries, not just the US.
The standard measure of oil production is the barrel – 40 gallons. Actually a barrel contains 42 gallons – 2 extra to make up for evaporative loss. The abbreviation is bbl, but I am at a loss to figure where the second “b” comes from. Even with its oil facilities in bad shape and poorly maintained, the average Iraqi well can produce about13,700 bbl per day. The comparable figure for Saudi Arabia is 10,200 bbl/day. The average US well produces 17 bbl/day. Also, while the average cost to get a barrel to the surface in the US is about $10, the comparable cost in Saudi Arabia is about $2.50 – and in Iraq, less than $1. Those are pretty impressive numbers. I don't know whether the Time Magazine authors suffer from the same disease as the NY Times reporter who recently resigned over his preference for writing fiction, but assuming those numbers are right, we can see why the Russians, Germans and French and others get very nervous about getting their hands on Iraqi oil.
I don't see anything wrong with the US trading for Iraqi oil. Where we have surpluses in our country we trade them – timber, technology, agriculture products, etc. I do not believe that the US or anyone else should ripoff the Iraqis with so much at stake. Considering the huge US demand for oil and the fact that the French and Germans don't have very much, the Iraqis will not hurt for customers. Frankly, I have more faith in US integrity than I do for those “old Europeans” (as Rummy called them). That's why I hope we can get Iraq back on its feet so that it can manage its own affairs productivley and constructively. Was the war all about oil? I don't think any fair minded person could say so considering the gruesome disclosures left from Saddam's tyrrany – to say nothing about a lot yet to be found. . But there is no doubt that oil is the biggest chip on the table now.
Just look at the numbers.